Exploring the correlation between the U.S. dollar index (major currencies) and Gold (iShares Comex Gold).

Theory
It is widely known that historically there is an inverse relationship between the price of Gold and the USD. So, what happens when one of the two does not respond as expected to a move in the others price?
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Q. How Does Currency Trading Work

A. Currency is traded in pairs (for example AUD/USD), the cross rate refers to how much of one currency you can buy by selling the other. If the quote for the AUD/USD is 0.94, this means I can buy 0.94 USD (94 cents) for every $1 AUD I own.

Now, lets say I believe the AUD is going to rise in value in relation to the USD based on some news I read. I could take out an AUD/USD position with a Forex Broker. In the Forex broker platform all I need to do is click BUY on the AUD/USD quote and enter the quantity I want.
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The main Expedia website has prices stated in USD. If you scroll to the very bottom on the website you can see the international sites Expedia has, these are currently;
- Australia
- Canada
- China
- Denmark
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Japan
- Netherlands
- New Zealand
- Norway
- Spain
- Sweden
- United Kingdom
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Currency trading on the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another one. The currency pair used for the trade is called a cross. The most commonly traded currencies are referred to as the “majors”, these are; EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD.
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The Forex market is open 24 hours a day 5 days a week. This provides traders the opportunity to place trades at any time of the day or night. As we cannot all stay up 24 hours a day to trade Forex there are certain hours of the day where the market is relatively quiet.

The best time to trade the Forex market is when there is plenty of action and a large volume of trades, during these times currencies make their big moves providing the Forex trader with opportunities to profit.

There are several major Forex trading sessions, these are; New York, London, Sydney and Tokyo. The biggest currency moves and volume generally occur when two of these markets overlap.

The Forex Trading Hours are therefore (in EST);
New York / London – 8:00 am – 12:00 noon
Sydney / Tokyo – 7:00 pm – 2:00 am
London / Tokyo – 3:00 am – 4:00 am
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Gold has slipped a little lower as market players anticipate the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision. Yesterday’s rally above $930 USD has no doubt caused some profit taking, with other investors positioning themselves in case the anticipated 50 basis point cut from the Fed does not eventuate. Investors remain uncertain as to how much assistance the US central bank will offer the struggling stock market.

Forex investors have already priced in a 50 basis point cut to the value of the USD. Investors expect a 50 basis point cut will see an increase in the value of gold, while a lesser rate cut could see a correction in the price of precious metals.
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Expectations continue to build that the Federal Reserve will pause its rates tightening cycle in August, this will result in Forex traders cutting their long USD positions.

The latest release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) revealed that Fed officials are uncertain about the future interest rate direction and are concerned about short term inflation.

Forex Investors reacted to the release of minutes from the FOMC by continuing to reduce their USD holdings, this saw the Euro rise to a high of 1.2650 USD overnight from 1.2590.
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The dollar (USD) continues to suffer from last week’s relatively dovish policy statement from the US Federal Reserve and a recovery in risk assets, such as equities.

Though the quarter point hike in the Fed funds rate to 5.25 pct was expected, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee cautioned about the outlook for growth. In response to the statement, the Fed funds futures now attach a 65 pct of another rate hike in August, down on 80 pct predicted before.
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The United Arab Emirates central bank has made no decision yet on diversifying its foreign exchange reserves and the current USD ratio is appropriate, the bank’s Governor Sultan Nasser Al Suweidi said yesterday.

However, he told Reuters in an interview that a shift remains the bank’s long-term objective.
“The board is making the decision but it has not taken the decision yet,” he said on the sidelines of a conference in London.
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The USD drifted higher against major rivals as dealers monitored the outlook for interest rates, while the GBP also weakened on news that a Bank of England policymaker had suddenly died.

The Euro fell to 1.2637 dollars in early European trading from 1.2659 dollars late on Wednesday in New York.

The USD climbed to 115.14 yen from 114.86 yen on Wednesday.

In Asian trading, the USD had extended losses ignited Wednesday after European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet raised expectations for further rate increases in the eurozone.
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The New Zealand dollar NZD fell to a 10-week low against the USD on Thursday, after data showed the country’s current account deficit blew out to record levels in the first quarter.

Long standing concerns about the size and sustainability of New Zealand’s current account deficit were rekindled by the worse-than-expected data.

“The current account deficit is 9.3 percent of GDP, much too high for the market’s liking, particularly as attracting capital flows is becoming more difficult,” said Ashley Davies, currency strategist at UBS in Singapore.
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The USD extended losses on Wednesday after a higher-than-expected reading of U.S. inflation for May did little to dispel uncertainty about interest rate increases beyond an expected hike in late June.

After seven consecutive sessions of gains in the dollar against the Euro, traders trimmed their positions after the Consumer Price Index data cemented the chances of a June Fed rate hike but shed little light on policy moves beyond that.
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On Thursday, June 8, Russia became the latest in the list of countries that shifted a part of its Central Bank reserves from the USD. Sergei Ignatyev, chairman of the Central Bank, said that only 50 percent of its reserves are now held in dollars, with 40 percent in Euro and the rest in GBP. Earlier it was believed that just 25-30 percent of Russia’s reserves were held in Euros, with virtually all the rest held in dollars.
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The USD extended a recovery on Tuesday from one-year lows against the Euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s pledge to stay vigilant against inflation left the door open for another interest rate rise later in June.
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Yesterday, U.S. President George W. Bush named Paulson, a 60-year-old Wall Street veteran, to succeed John Snow, a former railroad executive who has led the department since February 2003. Hank Paulson’s nomination as Treasury Secretary may provide some temporary relief for the sliding USD owing to Paulson’s prominent status as a former of a top Wall Street firm. But we doubt that Paulson’s role at the Treasury in the next 2 ½ years will alter the current and emerging fundamental challenges to the US currency.
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