Today, trading will resume in the US markets following a day of mourning for former president Ford. So, trading start the new year only today, but with an extremely busy and important calendar that contains the December ISM, car sales and ADP employment
report, the construction spending figures for November and the Minutes of the December 12 FOMC meeting.

The market expects the ISM to have risen marginally to 50 from 49.5 previously. The various regional surveys point in different directions. The NY Fed survey and the Chicago PMI showed quite good readings, but the Philly Fed and Richmond surveys
printed a picture of very weak activity in those regions. We suspect the Chicago PMI benefited from extreme clement seasonal (which are much less a factor for the ISM) and so are not impressed by the gains the survey showed in December. Therefore,
we put ourselves on the bearish side of consensus. If the ISM remains below 50, it would be the second consecutive month activity contracted in the manufacturing sector and should support Treasuries.
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