The Mexican currency (peso) saw gains today after the Federal Reserve cut the U.S. interest rate by 50 basis points. The move by the Fed has made yields in emerging market assets more attractive.

The Fed has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3% in an attempt to prevent the U.S. economy from falling into a recession. The benchmark interest rate in Mexico is currently 7.5%.
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Gold has slipped a little lower as market players anticipate the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision. Yesterday’s rally above $930 USD has no doubt caused some profit taking, with other investors positioning themselves in case the anticipated 50 basis point cut from the Fed does not eventuate. Investors remain uncertain as to how much assistance the US central bank will offer the struggling stock market.

Forex investors have already priced in a 50 basis point cut to the value of the USD. Investors expect a 50 basis point cut will see an increase in the value of gold, while a lesser rate cut could see a correction in the price of precious metals.
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Expectations continue to build that the Federal Reserve will pause its rates tightening cycle in August, this will result in Forex traders cutting their long USD positions.

The latest release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) revealed that Fed officials are uncertain about the future interest rate direction and are concerned about short term inflation.

Forex Investors reacted to the release of minutes from the FOMC by continuing to reduce their USD holdings, this saw the Euro rise to a high of 1.2650 USD overnight from 1.2590.
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The USD extended losses on Wednesday after a higher-than-expected reading of U.S. inflation for May did little to dispel uncertainty about interest rate increases beyond an expected hike in late June.

After seven consecutive sessions of gains in the dollar against the Euro, traders trimmed their positions after the Consumer Price Index data cemented the chances of a June Fed rate hike but shed little light on policy moves beyond that.
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The prevailing explanation for the sudden, precipitous fall by the USD is that the Fed is nearing the end of its current monetary tightening cycle, at which point interest rate differentials between the US and the rest of the world will begin to narrow. In this vein, Ben Bernanke’s hint that the Fed might end its cycle earlier than expected probably hastened the dollar’s decline.

Forex traders will admittedly be watching economic indicators closely for insight into the Fed’s likely course of action. Read the rest of this entry »