Yesterday, U.S. President George W. Bush named Paulson, a 60-year-old Wall Street veteran, to succeed John Snow, a former railroad executive who has led the department since February 2003. Hank Paulson’s nomination as Treasury Secretary may provide some temporary relief for the sliding USD owing to Paulson’s prominent status as a former of a top Wall Street firm. But we doubt that Paulson’s role at the Treasury in the next 2 ½ years will alter the current and emerging fundamental challenges to the US currency.
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The USD weakened further today as the market continued to be rattled by a report speculating that a possible replacement for US Treasury Secretary John Snow could favor a weaker greenback, dealers said.

Dealers pinned the blame for the currency’s weakness on an opinion piece in the Times in the UK, which said that President George W Bush had spent yesterday’s public holiday in the US with former commerce secretary Don Evans, fueling speculation that Evans may replace Snow.
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Most currency watchers think that any USD rally is likely to prove temporary, given the market’s mounting concerns over the US current account deficit, which stands at around 6 pct of GDP, and expectations of a narrowing in the yield differential between the US and its major competitors.
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China’s net international investment position (IIP) more than doubled last year, largely as a result of its fast-growing economy and an improved international clearing capacity.

China’s net IIP, or overseas financial assets and direct investment minus such liabilities, was US$287.5 billion at the end of 2005, surging by 138 per cent from a year earlier, according to figures released yesterday by the country’s top foreign exchange body, or State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
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TOKYO: Japanese games console maker Nintendo Co Ltd has reported a 12.5 per cent increase in its net profit for the year ended March 2006, mostly on account of gains from foreign currency-denominated assets.

However, the company forecast a 34 per cent decline in net earnings this fiscal, as a result of the impact of the appreciation of the yen and costs on account of launching its next generation stand-alone game console, ‘Wii.’
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National Australia Bank’s management had the wool pulled over their eyes by two former traders involved in the $326 million unauthorised trading scandal that rocked the bank in 2004, a court has been told.

The Victorian County Court heard that Vince Ficarra told his boss on the foreign exchange options desk, Luke Duffy, that he was not impartial to telling lies as the traders continued to hide losses by entering one-sided false trades.
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The USD rose sharply against major currencies after US new homes sales data came in well above expectations, suggesting that US interest rates could be heading higher.

US new home sales rose by 4.9 pct in April to 1.20 mln units, the highest level so far this year and well above analysts’ expectations for a fall to 1.15 mln, figures showed.
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Is the USD at risk because of America’s enormous current account deficit? Many “experts” are spreading information that is confusing, outdated or simply not applicable. Yes, the current account deficit puts the dollar at risk; at the same time, however, a lower dollar will provide no long-term solution to the current account deficit.
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In the past few days we have seen a bearish scenario develop slowly in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs. The USD rallied mostly on Wednesday as both French and Germany’s economy ministry agreed that an ongoing rise in the euro could harm exports. French Finance Minister Thierry Breton even went further by saying that “everything” must be done to prevent the Euro from strengthening too much against the dollar which may include an intervention by European central bank (ECB) to move in to the market and weaken the single currency.
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The Australian dollar (AUD) fell off it’s 2 week low today as the USD gained against major currencies. However the Australian dollar upside was limited due the fall in commodity prices during the few last sessions.
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The prevailing explanation for the sudden, precipitous fall by the USD is that the Fed is nearing the end of its current monetary tightening cycle, at which point interest rate differentials between the US and the rest of the world will begin to narrow. In this vein, Ben Bernanke’s hint that the Fed might end its cycle earlier than expected probably hastened the dollar’s decline.

Forex traders will admittedly be watching economic indicators closely for insight into the Fed’s likely course of action. Read the rest of this entry »

The eagerly awaited semi-annual Treasury report on exchange rates has finally been released, and the results may have serious implications. Many members of Congress, among others, had been hoping the US would use the report to officially label China a currency manipulator, which would justify the use of trade sanctions and other economic penalties.
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